The opinions expressed are those of Retired Major General Perry Smith, an author of several leadership books. They do not necessarily reflect those of Augusta Business Daily.
- The Harris/Walz momentum will fade a bit between now and election day. However, on 20 January 2025, Kamala Harris will become the 47th President of the United States. This event will lead to great joy as well as disappointment and anger.
- A “wild card” will help propel Harris to victory—swifties4kamala. The Taylor Swift factor will be huge. Millions from age 18 to age 35 will follow her lead.
- Beginning on November 6, riots in many American cities will begin. The Oath Keepers, the Proud Boys, and others will coordinate their efforts. These groups will seriously challenge police forces, the National Guard, the Reserves, and even our active-duty troops.
- Ukraine will win the war. Once Ukraine establishes “air dominance,” every Russian vehicle, cluster of troops, and command post will be at risk–much like the “Highway of Death” in Kuwait in late February 1991. The most important factors: F-16s and precision munitions. Unlike Hamas, which constructed tunnels for 20 years, Russian soldiers have nowhere to hide. The F-16s are being provided by many NATO nations, not just the United States.
Long-Term Predictions
- China will fade. Why? A. Stupid decisions Xi. B. Very low birth rate (the “social overhang” will be a real burden– one worker supporting both parents and grandparents). C. Lots of folks leaving China—a brain drain not unlike Russia during the Putin era. D. Very few friends and allies.
- Ukraine will join NATO.
- The United States will remain the world’s only true superpower. An improved alliance structure in both Europe and East Asia will help sustain this dominance.
- Turmoil in the Middle East will continue unabated for the next few decades.
- Within ten years, most of our energy will be produced by non-fossil fuels (solar, wind, nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal). By 2040, fusion energy will become important.
FINAL POINTS. My interest in planning and predictions goes way back—In 1966 and 1967, I conducted research on long-range planning. This research led to my first book (The Air Force Plans for Peace: 1943-1945). By 1981, I was the top Air Force planner. Perhaps our most important strategic prediction, in the early 1980’s, was the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the Air Force level, we saw the opportunity to go beyond air superiority to air dominance. The magic formula was a combination of great precision and stealth. In the 1990’s, Desert Storm and the wars in Serbia and Kosovo validated this formula.
Perry Smith is the author of seven books. Rules and Tools for Leaders is his most successful with 350,000 in print. Jeff Foley was the co-author of the 4th edition.
