Given my record in forecasting sporting events, I may not be the best person to provide an economic forecast. Nevertheless, that is what I will be doing at 7:30 am on Thursday, December 7th, in the Roscoe Ballroom on the Augusta University Summerville Campus. The event is free and open to the public, but we ask that you register by emailing hull@augusta.edu, so we can manage the food and beverages appropriately.
Last year, I presented four indicators of recession and two of them indicated an economic downturn and two did not. So, I was right!!!
Nationally, the yield curve continues to be negative indicating a recession. The yield curve is the difference between long-term and short-term government securities. In normal times, the long-run interest rate is higher than the short-term rate to compensate investors for less liquidity. The yield curve has turned negative before each of the last six recessions, including the unexpected Covid recession (see below). A negative yield curve indicates the markets are expecting lower future interest rates in response to a slowing economy.
Searches on Google for the term “recession” have fallen by half since this time last year, both for the U.S. and for Georgia, indicating recession fears have receded. So again, this year, indicators are providing contradictory evidence of a recession.
I will present the other two local indicators of economic activity at the Economic Forecast Breakfast. I look forward to seeing you there.
