December 13, 2022

Last week, I gave my annual economic forecast for 2023 at Augusta University. For those who were unable to attend, I discussed three indicators of recessions. First, the yield curve is indicating a national recession. Interest rates on long-term government securities are currently lower than on short-term securities. As shown in the graph below, the yield curve has inverted prior to each of the last four recessions. An inverted yield curve means that investors are expecting lower short-term rates as a policy response to recessionary pressures. Second, the availability of