As an economics Professor at Augusta University, Dr. Simon Medcalfe has carefully studied the leading indicators that predict whether the U.S. will experience a recession in 2023, but those indicators are currently mixed.
Yesterday, Medcalfe was the presenter for the Hull College of Business’s 15th annual Economic Forecast Breakfast. More than 100 business leaders and AU staff and faculty attended. Breakfast was provided by Wells Fargo.
Medcalfe said Google Trends is currently predicting a recession is less likely to occur than it was in June and July 2022. Two of the three other research methods he used also indicate it is unlikely the CSRA will endure a recession in 2023.
Medcalfe also discussed factors that comprise Augusta’s Leading Economic Index, such as job openings, unemployment claims, and inflation. The LEI is used to predict future economic activity.
“Job openings have been declining over the last four or five months,” he said.
But Medcalfe said there are still enough jobs for every unemployed person, and the number of unemployment claims has decreased significantly over the last two years. Much of his presentation focused on the local and national job markets, particularly job categories that have experienced significant growth, such as management, transportation, and health care.
He said in the Augusta Metropolitan Statistical Area, the number of physician assistant jobs increased by 500 percent between 2013 and 2021, which is no surprise to Davis Mellick, a physician assistant and partner with Welcome Health in Evans. Mellick said it has always ranked in the top 10 professions for various reasons, including lower education costs compared to medical school.
“There is a significant need for more medical providers,” he said. “Limitations by the American Medical Association on medical schools and residency programs limit the supply of physicians.”
Mellick said PAs often fill roles previously occupied by MDs. He said other factors that have led to this job growth include income and standardized education.
“Students from all across the country are held to the same high standards and tested at the end of their education with a national certification exam, which has created increased trust within the general public due to good standardization of knowledge and expectations,” Mellick said.
Medcalfe said the number of physician assistant jobs is expected to grow by 28 percent by 2031. Computer and mathematical jobs also grew exponentially between 2013 and 2021, and that’s especially true for information security analyst jobs.
“Of the top 25 occupations with the fastest projected growth, 12 are in health care or computer and mathematical jobs,” he said.
