Economics

The “SAHM” rule is named for economist, Claudia Sahm. The national U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, the highest since 2021. It also marked another milestone. According to the Sahm indicator, the U.S. economy is now in recession. The Sahm indicator says that if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by more than a half percentage point above the lowest three-month average for the previous 12 months, then the economy is in recession. By this measure, the Sahm indicator hit 0.53 in July. The unemployment rate for July

Aiken County residents have more than just political candidates to consider in the November general election. They are being asked to decide whether a new Capital Projects Sales Tax (CPST) should be imposed. It is not a new tax; it is a continuing one already in effect. CPST 4 expires in February 2025. CPST 5 would go into effect the following month. An estimated $260 million will be collected and shared among all municipalities in Aiken County to pay for a defined list of projects. One of the projects funded

As I write this week’s economic commentary, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is up over 500 points on lower initial claims for unemployment insurance, and lower inflation, and robust retail sales data. The rise in the DJIA is a leading indicator for the local economy as it is highly correlated with local firm’s share prices. Rising share prices reflect the markets’ expectation of future firm cashflows and profitability. Locally, initial claims for unemployment insurance lag the national releases, but climbed slightly in May and June. Inflation in the South

On Friday, August 2nd, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. employment increased by 114,000 in July. This represents a slowdown in job generation over the last four years. The slowdown in employment growth hit stock hard, but raised the prospect of an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. While July employment numbers are not yet available for the Augusta Metropolitan Statistical Area, employment growth has been static in the last six months. After increasing from 244,000 in July 2023 to 246,200 in November 2023, employment