Economics

Local economic data is starting to be released by government organizations after the federal shutdown. I can now update the Augusta Leading Economic Index (LEI) through August! In August, the index was down 0.2% from July but remained 0.8% higher than August 2024. Components contributing positively to the index included initial claims for unemployment insurance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and job openings. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 44 percent in July. In August, the DJIA was amid a six-month rally that has continued at least through the

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the delayed September jobs report last week. Employment growth was strong, with 119,000 new jobs created, but the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. There is no indication, yet, when metro-level data will be made available. For my economic forecast next week, I will therefore look at some more long-term drivers of economic growth as well as some current policies. Obviously, tariffs have been in the economic news this year, and an analysis of their impact in Georgia will be presented. The current administration

With the continued government shutdown and no new official economic news releases from federal agencies, I again turn to the ADP employment report for the latest jobs market data. The ADP report is based on national payroll data from more than 26 million U.S. employees, who come from ADP clients, like the ones getting serviced for payroll and HR in West August. This is about 1 in 5 private sector employees, and 1 in 6 covers total employees. The data they have does skew towards larger firms and firms located