When experts speak about the economic outlook, the news is often grim. But according to one economist, there are many reasons to be optimistic about future growth in the U.S. economy.
While many predicted a recession in 2023, Dr. David Altig, Executive Vice President and Director of Research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said there’s currently little evidence to support that prediction. Yesterday, Altig served as the keynote speaker for Augusta Technical College’s third annual Mid-Year Economic Outlook.
“The U.S. economy is much stronger than we predicted, and businesses remain optimistic about the year ahead,” he said.
Altig said job growth remains strong. In one survey, the number of new jobs being added each month was as high as 339,000.
“This is a gangbuster labor market,” he said.
But while job numbers look great, they don’t tell the whole story.
“It doesn’t say how much people are working, and there are a remarkable number of part-time jobs,” Altig said.
He said the labor market is starting to cool, but the outlook remains positive.
“Job openings and people quitting their jobs are on the decline,” Altig said.
The number of Americans retiring is also much higher than economists predicted.
“Roughly, 1 million more Americans are retired than we would have expected from the immediate pre-pandemic trend,” he said.
Altig said much of the job growth has been fueled by immigration.
“Foreign-born employment growth is steady,” he said.
Altig also discussed inflation and its effect on prices.
“Seventy-two percent of businesses surveyed raised their prices, but the number that predicted they would continue to raise prices in the second half of 2023 fell to 57 percent,” he said. “We’re moving in the right direction – the forecast is inflation will normalize by 2025.”
