Publisher’s Note: One of the impacts of the government shutdown is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not released any economic data this month. It is only scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index on October 24th to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure timely payment of social security benefits.
That didn’t stop AU/ABD Economist, Dr. Simon Medcalfe from digging into other numbers.
Other economic data is available from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, although this is based on a range of government data and is unlikely to be updated. The Fed is self-funded and does not rely on appropriations from congress so is continuing to operate.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta produces the Commercial Real Estate Market Index (CREMI) which provides general commercial real estate conditions in most metro areas, including Augusta. The index aggregates data across five commercial real estate sectors: office, multifamily, retail, industrial, and hospitality. There are eight to nine variables in each of these sectors including data on occupancy rates, asset values, and sector employment. The index is calculated so that values above zero indicate the market is performing better than its long-term average. The chart below, generated from CREMI on the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta website, provides the data from Augusta over the last 5 years.
Hospitality, industrial, and retail commercial sectors are all performing above long-term average, with CREMI scores 0.6-0.8. Industrial and retail have been above trend continuously for the past 5 years. Office is right-on long-term average at 0.0, and multifamily is just below long-term trend at 0.1. However, office and multifamily are on an upward trend since 2023. Generally, regional economic effects, such as employment, are having a larger impact than real estate effects such as occupancy rates.
Nationally, the CREMI is -0.74 and has been negative since early 2023 suggesting that Augusta is doing well compared to itself historically, but also compared to other metro areas across the country today.
