The US government has opened back up, but at the time of writing, we do not know when much of the backlog of economic data will be released.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is responsible for the national inflation and employment situation, had collected employment data for September before the shutdown and announced late Friday that this information will be released on Thursday. It has already published inflation data for September.
The White House announced last week that it is unlikely we will get employment and inflation data for October. Some of this data collection involves BLS staff calling households to inquire about unemployment and visiting retail outlets to get prices on goods and services.
Data at the local level may be more delayed than national data. As a reminder, the latest local economic data we have is for August (August!), and we are in mid-November. In August, employment in the Augusta Metropolitan Statistical Area had fallen for three consecutive months since July, before increasing in August. The unemployment rate had fallen from 4.7% in October 2024 to 4.1% in August.
The lack of economic data is making the Federal Reserve’s job harder as it contemplates interest rate policy at its December meeting. Chair Jerome Powell, described the situation as like driving in a fog, and that in such a situation, you slow down, indicating a pause in interest rate cuts.
Closer to home, I will give my annual economic forecast on December 2nd. Hopefully, I will be able to update some of the economic data for Augusta by then and provide a little bit of clarity as the fog lifts.
The economic forecast breakfast is free and open to the public. Interested in attending? Register here.
