Over the last 10 Masters tournaments, the winner has been victorious either by one shot (3 times) or through a playoff (twice), indicating that victory often hinges on the smallest of margins.
Professional golfers, therefore, spend many hours on skill development, decision-making, and mental resilience. However, external factors, such as weather, can introduce an element of luck into golf competitions. Sometimes golfers benefit from a calm day going out early, sometimes the afternoon weather is more agreeable to low scores.
Justin Ehrlich, a co-author of mine on other research, and his colleagues from Syracuse University and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, recently published a paper on the impact of weather on golf performance. They use data from seven PGA Tour seasons, and their measures of golf performance are total strokes and driving distance. Air density, wind, dew point, and precipitation are used to measure weather conditions. Importantly, they are able to analyze weather conditions throughout a golfer’s round, not just an average for the day.
The largest effect is seen with wind speed; an extra 8.6 mph of wind speed is associated with 1.15 additional total strokes. The next most important weather variable is air density, followed by wind gusts, precipitation, and dew point. Higher elevations and, therefore, lower air density can have as much as a 9-yard difference in driving distance. The relationship between lower air density and longer drives and fewer total strokes comes from physics. When air density is lower, drag force decreases, increasing driving distance. Longer drives leave short, easier shots into the green.
While golfers and fans already know that weather affects performance, this more granular analysis of weather data, particularly air density, is new. Caddies and golfers at this year’s tournament may benefit from this deeper understanding of the interplay between golf strokes and weather.
