The Augusta Leading Economics Index (LEI) fell 1.1 percent in June from May. It remains 0.3 percent higher than June 2024.
Declines were seen in all components except the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Residential building permits fell from 306 in May to 291 in June. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased from 684 in May to 879 in June. The inflation rate in the South Census region increased to 2.3 percent, up from 2.0 percent in May and 1.9 percent in March.
Job openings in Georgia declined from 328,000 in May to 286,000 in June. South Carolina job openings were little changed at 143,000. However, we have read and heard a lot about revisions of employment data in the last few weeks, and job openings were also revised, going back to January 2019. Overall, this revision shows 163,000 fewer job openings in Georgia over the past 6 ½ years. South Carolina saw 49,000 fewer jobs after the revision.
Although I don’t think Bureau of Labor Statistics data, including employment and job openings, is rigged, there are clearly collection issues. The job openings data is collected from surveys of 21,000 establishments, and response rates are very variable. The response rate in March 2025 was 90% but only 61% in June 2022. Some data is still collected by fax! The employment data has seen response rates drop to 43%. Monthly economic data is important for understanding the vitality of the national and local economy, but there is an opportunity to improve the quality of that data.
