Small businesses have an increasingly pessimistic outlook about the economy and where it’s heading, according to the Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF)’s latest Small Business IQ poll. According to the poll, 72 percent rate the U.S. economy as either fair or poor, but among companies in the South, that percentage is 80 percent. Also, 55 percent say the direction of the economy is getting worse, with 64 percent in the South saying so. JCNF has been polling small businesses monthly since May 2021. In November, JCNF contacted 500 small businesses

Last week, I gave my annual economic forecast for 2023 at Augusta University. For those who were unable to attend, I discussed three indicators of recessions. First, the yield curve is indicating a national recession. Interest rates on long-term government securities are currently lower than on short-term securities. As shown in the graph below, the yield curve has inverted prior to each of the last four recessions. An inverted yield curve means that investors are expecting lower short-term rates as a policy response to recessionary pressures. Second, the availability of