If you felt crowded over the five days of the holiday shopping this year, there is a good reason for that. A new report says a record 202.9 million consumers were out in force from Thanksgiving Day to Black Friday, Shop Small Saturday, through Sunday, and on into Cyber Monday.
That number is based on a consumer survey released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That broke the previous record of 200.4 million, set in 2023.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, during a virtual news conference for reporters, including ABD, called the record turnout a solid beginning to the holiday season.
“I think it clearly reflects the ongoing importance of this five-day period, both for shoppers and for retailers, and I think there are a variety of reasons why we see people out over this weekend,” he said. “Certainly, many consumers are looking for the attractive deals that are out there. Others see this as a social experience, or as a holiday tradition, and many others see this as an opportunity to get ahead on their gift shopping and really concentrated preparation for the holidays.”
Shay said the turnout makes him confident that spending will reach earlier predictions. In early November, NRF predicted spending over the holiday shopping period, defined as Nov. 1st to Dec. 31st, would set a record of upwards of $1.2 trillion.
Dr. Simon Medcalfe, Professor of Economics and Finance in the Hull College of Business, and a columnist for ABD, said he is seeing mixed signals with some surveys reporting consumers are feeling down about the economy, yet are continuing to spend.
“I think if you parse the data, from what I’ve seen, there are some groups in society that are really continuing to spend. Upper-income people are probably driving a lot of that retail spending. While the lower income and the Gen Z people that just graduated, they’ve now got rent and health care, and if parents have kicked them out of their home, they’re the ones that are drawing back.”
Other reports indicate that, while spending is trending higher, unit sales, the number of items being purchased, are lower.
“While we may be seeing potentially a flat amount of transactions, my expectation is that we’re seeing bigger basket sizes because consumers are out there,” said Mark Matthews, NRF’s chief economist. “Not just shopping for goods, not just shopping for holidays, but shopping for everything they want to take advantage of these great deals that they’re seeing.”
Medcalfe said another factor may be what people are buying.
“I was Black Friday shopping on Friday for a couch, which should be a big ticket item,” he explained. “So, what you’re seeing is spending on big-ticket items. Because the per item is higher.”
One thing driving consumers to shop, said Shay, is early promotions jumpstarting holiday sales.
“Based on the results of the survey, more than half of consumers, 54%, told us they took advantage of early holiday sales and promotions, which contributed to some of the momentum for the weekend. Another clear headline was that consumers were active and turned out both in store and online over the weekend, and I think that clearly reinforces for all of us the importance of seamless commerce,” he said.
Breaking down the numbers showed that both in-store and online shopping attracted consumers. A total of 129.5 million consumers shopped in-store, an increase of 3% from 126 million in 2024. For online sales, 134.9 million shoppers clicked their way through the weekend. That is up 9% from 124.3 million last year.
An estimated 96% of those shopping made purchases specifically tied to the holiday season and spent an average of $337.86 on items like gifts, holiday apparel, decorations, and other seasonal purchases. That is the most spent since 2019’s record of $361.90.
Additional information on the holiday shopping is available at
https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/winter-holidays.
