The Augusta Leading Economics Index (LEI) increased 0.3 percent in January from December. It is 0.6 percent higher than January 2024. This is good news, given that all five components moved adversely in December.
In January, permits for new residential housing increased by 13 percent to 282. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 10 percent to 1,288. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 44,544 at the end of January, although it has given back those gains in February. Inflation in the south rose slightly to 2.8 percent.
The biggest drag on the LEI was job openings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down their estimates of job openings in December by 23,000 across Georgia and South Carolina. Job openings fell a further 3,000 in Georgia and 10,000 in South Carolina in January. There are still 1.5 unemployed persons per job opening in Georgia but only 1.1 persons in South Carolina.
Job openings per unemployed person have been falling since early 2022, when there were over 2.5 job openings per unemployed person. A ratio above one indicates that there may be a mismatch between job openings and the unemployed. It may be a skill or geographic mismatch. Once the ratio dips below unity, it indicates cyclical issues related to the general state of the economy.
