What a difference one month makes in economic data. In my economic forecast for 2023 which I gave in December, four of the five indicators in the Augusta Leading Economic Index (LEI) saw improvements in the October data. In the November data, three indicators moved in a positive direction, but two indicators saw big adverse movements.
Inflation in the south fell by 0.1 percent in the month to November but remains at 7.7% on an annual basis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased to the end of November at over 34,500. However, it has since given back these gains. Job openings remain strong in South Carolina and Georgia. Job openings in South Carolina increased by 6,000 and by 8,000 in Georgia.
However, these gains were canceled out by the two specific Augusta Metropolitan Statistical Area indicators. Residential housing permits fell 43 percent from October to November. Although permits are very variable from month to month, it is the largest fall in almost four years. Initial claims for unemployment insurance also increased by the largest amount since the onset of the COVID pandemic in April 2020.
Overall, the Augusta LEI declined 4.4% in November from October. If account is taken of the high monthly variability in the permits and unemployment insurance, the three-month moving average LEI fell by 1.2%. Either way, the LEI is now below the level of November 2021 and heading in the wrong direction.
1 comment
This is good and useful information for business owners. Appreciate your research and input. Sincerely, Cooper Cliatt / Augusta Telephone.