Inflation went up nearly 4% in the latest Economic Index report.
There are some positive highlights as well.
The Augusta Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.3 percent in May and is 0.1 percent higher than in May 2025.
It has been a while since I updated the Augusta LEI because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has stopped publishing monthly job openings for states. Instead, the only monthly data on job openings is for the South census region, a geographic area stretching from Maryland and Delaware to Texas and Oklahoma. This is unfortunate for local businesses, as data for Georgia and South Carolina is a better indicator of local conditions, but I guess this is what smaller government looks like.
The job openings data for the South over the last year doesn’t show any strong trends, see the graph below.
Other components in the Augusta LEI include residential housing permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and real deposits in local banks. These components are included because they historical change before changes in real economic variables such as housing construction and unemployment rates.
In May, permits increased 12 percent, insurance claims decreased by 19 percent, and the DJIA increased. The only negative amongst the components was an increase in inflation to 3.9%.
The Augusta LEI has had four consecutive positive months, boding well for the near future. However, there is no real trend over the last 12 months (see chart below).
