It has been a while since I updated the Augusta Leading Economic Index (LEI) and there have been some interesting developments.
In September and October, there were 572 and 545 new residential building permits issued for the August Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The September number is the second highest, and the October number the fourth highest, since records began in January 2000. This represents good news for the construction industry and the supply of housing to help ensure affordable housing.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance took a hit in October, when Hurricane Helene devastated the area. Claims jumped from 818 in September to 4,085 in October. However, they quickly returned to more normal levels (944) in November.
Job openings in Georgia and South Carolina fell in September by a combined 127,000. However, they increased by 114,000 over the next two months, with slightly stronger growth in Georgia than in South Carolina.

Inflation in the south census region, an area that stretches from Maryland and Delaware to Texas, has started to increase after falling from its peak of over 9%. It rose from 2.1% in September to 2.7% in November, a touch below the national average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had a rollercoaster few months, increasing in August, falling in September, and again in October, before finishing November strongly.
Overall, the Augusta LEI fell in July, August, September, and October, but had a strong November (up 0.4 percentage points). Overall, the LEI is 0.5 percentage points below November 2023.