The Augusta Leading Economic Index fell 0.5 percent in July from June. It remains 0.1 percent higher than July 2023.
After a bumper June, residential housing permits returned to normal levels, but represented a 66 percent monthly decline. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 40 percent, as they often do in the summer with new high school and college graduates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished July strongly and inflation declined to 2.3 percent in the south. The price level actually fell from June to July, but was 2.3 percent higher than a year ago.
Job openings were revised down in Georgia in June, but represent a five-month consecutive increase through July. Overall, job openings in Georgia and South Carolina, weighted by employment, increased 2.1 percent. There remain 1.4 jobs per unemployed person in both Georgia and South Carolina. Where can we get people to fill these jobs?
A couple of weeks ago, I gave a presentation to the Society for Human Resource Management CSRA chapter. The employment ratio in the Augusta MSA is about 55 percent, which compares with the national rate of 60 percent. The employment ratio is those employed divided by the population aged 16 or older. To increase the Augusta employment ratio to the US average, we will need to increase employment by about 25,000. Of the population that is not employed, about 15,000 are unemployed, and about 10,000 are in the armed forces. About 70,000 are aged 16-24. The largest part of the population not in employment is those aged over 65, at about 110,000, leaving about 20,000 others not in the workforce.
We could call on young people to work, but I would suggest many are better off in school, both for themselves and for society. As society ages, we do see more people staying in the workforce longer, but many older people have chosen to retire, especially since the pandemic. A recent report in Bloomberg noted that older workers have not added to net job growth nationally since 2020. Some people remain outside the workforce to take care of children and increasingly elderly relatives. [Interesting fact: According to The Economist Americans spent more on their pets, $186 billion, in 2023 than they did on childcare]. If we have exhausted the local supply of workers, we need to consider attracting others to come work in Augusta.
