We finished strong in 2025.
The Augusta Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased by 0.4 percent in October and 0.1 percent in November. In November, the LEI was 1.3 percent higher than a year ago.
Residential building permits increased in October but fell back in November. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased in both months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its strong growth in the fourth quarter. After several months of declining job openings, October and November saw increased job openings. The November employment weighted average of job openings in Georgia and South Carolina was at its highest level since September 2023. There was also relief in terms of inflation. Although there was no inflation report for October, because of the government shutdown, inflation in the South was down from 2.7% in September to 2.2% in November.
Overall, the LEI is not really providing much guidance for the future. In the last six months, it has been up in three and down in three. It is hard to see any discernible trend in the last six months, or even the last three years (see graph).
The Conference Board, who produce a Leading Economic Indicator for the US (and uses the same methodology as the Augusta LEI), is indicating the same economic activity. They state that “Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum.”
