The numbers add up for Augusta’s Leading Economics Index (LEI) in August. Overall—up nearly 3% as four of the key five sectors are surging ahead.
Overall, the LEI increased 2.7 percent on the month, although the three-month moving average (3MA) was down 0.3%. I like to use the 3MA because local economic indicators can be very volatile on a month-to-month basis, so the 3MA gives a better idea of the trend.
Residential building permits increased 14 percent, and initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended August 1.3 percent higher than it ended July.
Job openings in the South census region had a particularly good couple of months. July numbers were revised upwards by 100,000, and August saw another 71,000. The South was the only census region to show higher job openings. I reported last week that private education and health services lost jobs in Augusta in August. The bad news is that national job openings in this sector fell by over 100,000, mostly in health care. Nationally, sectors with increased job openings were leisure and hospitality and retail.
It still seems early to me, but the end-of-year retail spending bonanza seems to be gearing up. Job openings in retail are the highest since May 2023. However, the Conference Board reported a large drop in consumer confidence based on its September survey. Respondents cited concerns over rising prices, especially oil and gas, but still anticipated incomes to rise. Which of these opposing forces dominates the end of the year will be interesting to watch.
