May was not a good month for the Augusta Leading Economic Index (LEI) with adverse movements in four out of the five components. Residential building permits declined 5.8 percent from April and initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 24.0 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished May lower than April and real deposits in local banks declined with continued inflation.
Job openings did increase by 1.2 percent, but much of that was because March numbers were revised down by 14,000 across Georgia and South Carolina.
Over the last six months, the five components have declined 18 times and increased 12 times. Each individual component has seen positive months and negative months over the last six months providing little consistent forecasting for real economic activity over the next six months.
On a brighter note, the USA cricket team caused a shock in the T20 cricket World Cup by defeating Pakistan in a super over (think extra innings). Having also defeated Canada, they qualified for the “super eights” portion of the tournament. In the super-eights, the eight qualifying teams were placed into two groups of four. The USA ran South Africa close, but lost comprehensively to the West Indies and England to exit the tournament.
It remains to be seen if this World Cup will have the same effect in the U.S., as the 1994 Soccer World Cup had on the development of Major League Soccer and soccer overall in the U.S. Next month sees the second season of Major League Cricket, played in Dallas TX and Morrisville, NC. Cricket will be an Olympic sport at the Los Angeles Games in 2028.
