Publisher’s Note: Retired Major General Perry Smith’s views are his own and do not necessarily match those of Augusta Business Daily.
This is the first of a two-part article that may be of interest to those of you who love to look into the future.
Having been a planner most of my adult life, I have found that serious planning leads to predictions, as well as both wild card and probability analysis.
I love to make predictions. However, they only count if I communicate them to others in one of three ways. 1. A published article in a magazine or newspaper, 2. A letter or an email that I send out. 3. A prediction on local or national TV.
Every year, I grade myself from A to F. Here is my track record over 57 years.
I. Predicting in 1967 that America’s incrementalism in the Vietnam War would lead to a stalemate. My score: D (I did not predict an American defeat). My study was officially withdrawn. My bosses concluded that it was too critical of President Lyndon Johnson and of Secretary of Defense, Robert McNamara.
II. Predicting in 1977 that the F-15 would be the world’s best air-to-air fighter aircraft for the short term. As of 2024, the F-15 ratio in air-to-air combat is 106 victories (by Israeli, Saudi, and American pilots) versus no losses. My Score: B (My error was not realizing how long the F-15 would rule the skies). F-15s–still in production. Soon, some will be going to Israel.
III. Predicting on CNN in early January 1991 that allied forces would free Kuwait in a few months. It actually took six weeks. My score: B plus
IV. Predicting in February 2022 that Russia would not invade Ukraine. My score: F (This failure led me to conduct serious research on Putin.)
V. Predicting Biden would step down. My score: B minus (I didn’t make the prediction until the day before Biden announced his decision. Others did better by predicting his decision earlier.)
VI. Predicting a few days before Kamala Harris made the announcement that Tim Walz would be chosen as her running mate. My score: A
In my next article, I will share with you my short-term and long-term predictions.
Perry Smith is the author of seven books. Rules and Tools for Leaders is his most successful with 350,000 in print. Jeff Foley was the co-author of the 4th edition.
