In my column last week, we looked back at the predictions I made in December concerning the national and local economy for 2024. For the most part, those predictions have been pretty accurate, and I indicated that there is not much I would change about those predictions for the remainder of the year. https://augustabusinessdaily.com/2024-predictions-revisited-how-is-it-going-so-far-part-1/
In my December column, I also made predictions under the headings of “Managing Your Business/Trends in the Workplace” and “Business of Sports.” In today’s column, I will evaluate the predictions under those headings so far this year and discuss any potential changes I might have given what has happened to date. One note on today’s predictions is that they are not as quantifiable as the ones we reviewed last week, so they are a little more difficult to evaluate. Given that caveat, here we go:
Managing Your Business/Trends in the Workplace:
Prediction #1: While more and more employees will return to the office in 2024, hybrid work will start to take hold as the predominant work model. While employers push for more time in the office and workers push for more flexibility, a hybrid model of 60 to 80% time in the office will result.
- Evaluation: While we only have data for the first quarter of 2024, this prediction has the correct trajectory, but was likely a little ambitious. Fully in-office remains the predominant work model with 69% of job postings, while hybrid is growing the fastest, primarily at the expense of remote work (less than 10% of postings). Also, a majority of workers under the hybrid model spend 3 days (60% of their work time) in the office.
- Looking Forward: A single data point is not a trend, but the 2024 data appears to continue the 2023 trend of remote options fading. Hybrid model jobs will continue to grow, but it will take a long time to outpace fully in-office jobs.
Prediction #2: The role of AI will become better defined in 2024. Automation will take on an increasing role in standardized work, which will impact many lower-skilled positions.
- Evaluation: Still a little too early to tell. AI is definitely being adopted in many industries to perform specific narrow tasks, but we do not have enough data yet to determine if its adoption is leading to the elimination of lower-skilled positions.
- Looking Forward: The adoption of AI is both rapid and experimental. Its role will become better defined in 2024, but will still be a work in progress. Companies are tending to using AI to assist employees rather than replace them.
Prediction #3: Resilience and diversification in supply chains will become more prevalent in 2024. While the pandemic exposed supply chain deficiencies, it has taken a while for businesses to address them. Increasing supplier bases, finding more local production facilities, and ramping up risk management plans are among the steps being taken.
- Evaluation: We had an early test of this prediction in March when the collapse of Baltimore’s Key Bridge disrupted supply chains, particularly for the East Coast of the United States. While the closure of the Baltimore port was problematic, supply chain disruptions were cushioned by excess inventories, real-time logistical planning, and diversified suppliers and manufacturing facilities. Therefore, the bridge collapse ended up having a more limited-than-expected impact. This prediction looks like a winner!
- Looking Forward: Given the muted impact of the bridge collapse, supply chains are clearly improved. However, I believe more lessons were learned from the collapse, leading to additional resiliency in the future.
Prediction #4: Competing on personalized service will become a leading strategy in business. As AI reduces the need for labor in some areas, people can be redeployed to providing better and more personalized service in order to win business.
- Evaluation: Too early to tell.
- Looking Forward: As the direction of AI becomes clearer, we will see if companies are able to deploy their employees to provide more personalized service. I will stick with this prediction, but it will likely take beyond 2024 to determine its accuracy.
Prediction #5: Omnichannel marketing will be the pervasive way to do business. In order to maximize customer experience, physical stores, websites, and apps will provide a seamless experience for the best companies.
- Evaluation: It is early, but looking accurate.
- Looking Forward: Firms using multiple channels are demonstrating success. According to the Harvard Business Review, 73% of all shoppers favor using multiple channels to shop. In addition, omnichannel shopping accounts for 27% of all retail sales, and it’s pervasive among younger shoppers who are more comfortable with technology. I will stick with this prediction; the question is not if, but when this will happen.
Business of Sports:
Prediction #1: College Football will begin its separation from other college sports. Given the financial behemoth that college football has become, 2024 will initiate a plan for a new structure for the top 40-70 programs separate from the NCAA and its current conferences. Early in 2024, I will provide a column on what that might look like.
- Evaluation: Nothing yet.
- Looking Forward: In my May 29 column, I indicated what this might look like and I still think it is going to happen. However, issues such as paying college athletes and current conference television contracts will need to be addressed before going forward with such a separation. Because of the big dollars at stake, my timeline might have been too aggressive and we may not have any meaningful movement in 2024.
Prediction #2: 2024 will be the year men’s professional golf will undergo significant change. While 2023 provided much turbulence, important negotiations are still ongoing on what the PGA Tour, LIV, and other tours will look like going forward. Locally, Augusta National and the Masters will play an important role in what will ultimately be decided.
- Evaluation: Jury is out.
- Looking Forward: There are currently talks going on between the PGA Tour and other international golf entities. However, information on those talks is limited and the negotiations are complex. Similar to the college football issue, this will likely take longer than I originally predicted due to the immense financial ramifications.
As you can see, I still stand behind my predictions for Workplace and Sports, but in most cases, I think my timeframes were a bit too aggressive. We will review these again at the end of the year and check the accuracy at that point.
