Last week, I documented the initial impact of Hurricane Helene on the labor market. This week, I provide some thoughts on the long-term impacts on our health based on my reading of the academic literature.
Rachel Young and Solomon Hsiang provide the first evidence of the long-term effect of tropical storms in an article in Nature. They find that mortality increases by 3.2% to 5.1% over 15 years following a hurricane. In Augusta, using all-cause mortality rates for Georgia, this would mean an extra 194 to 309 deaths per year, or between 3,000 and 4,600 over 15 years. The authors don’t explain why there are long-term increases in mortality after a hurricane, but other academic research suggests some pathways.
People hit by hurricanes may need to take money from retirement to repair property damage that takes money away from future healthcare spending. The loss of a house may increase stress. Other health outcomes are also adversely affected. For example, cancer treatment was disrupted by Hurricane Katrina which reduced survivability rates. Care is impacted as family members move away.
The loss of trees impacts the physical environment in two ways. First, shade cover is reduced. I have heard from several sources that Augusta lost 80% of its canopy which may result in an increase in mean temperature of 0.75F, an extra 63 ER visits per year, and an extra 6 deaths per year. Second, trees remove harmful pollutants from the air. Higher air pollution will result in increased mortality from cardiovascular disease and respiratory diseases. Augusta already has some of the worst air quality in the state of Georgia.
Overall, these long-term mortalities dwarf the direct mortality impact of Hurricane Helene.
