Publisher’s Note: The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not represent Augusta University.
Simon Says: I read a recent article in The Wall Street Journal comparing the economy under President Trump compared to President Biden, and I thought it would be interesting to examine the local economy under the same lens.
To do so, I compare the 20 months of data we have under the Trump presidency with the last 20 months of the Biden administration. The chart below provides the average rate of growth of employment and earnings, as well as the average unemployment and inflation rates.
Employment in the Augusta Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) increased by 290 workers per month on average in the last 20 months of the Biden administration. In the first 20 months of the Trump administration, it was 50 workers. However, statistical tests cannot reject the hypothesis that the real difference between the two eras is zero.
The unemployment rate is slightly higher under Trump, averaging 4.1% compared to 4.0% under Biden. Here, tests suggest that the rates are different in the two periods. But the 4.1% is still historically low.
Earnings growth was higher under Biden, at 1% per month on average compared to 0.8% under Trump. These rates are not meaningfully different.
Inflation is lower under Trump, averaging 2.6% compared to 3.3% under Biden, and these rates are statistically different.
Overall, the influence of the president on the local economy is mixed, with one point to Trump (inflation), one point to Biden (unemployment rate), and two ties (employment growth and earnings growth), what we would call in England a score draw. This may be not surprising given how little control over the local economy the President has.
